MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, August 19, 2020, due to the presence of Invest 98L 2020 that will likely form into a tropical cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean.
Invest 98L is a low pressure system located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands that is gradually becoming better defined (marked with a red “X”).
NHC forecasters say that the associated showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could be forming.
The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should closely monitor its progress as tropical storm watches could be required as early as this evening.
Invest 98L has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 90% chance within the next 48 hours.
If Invest 98L or Invest 97L become tropical storms or hurricanes, the next names on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List are Laura and Marco.
Spaghetti models are in strong agreement that Invest 98L will move west-northwestward across the open Atlantic and Caribbean towards the Lesser Antilles and then the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba.
The hurricane models are in general agreement that Invest 98L will enter the Gulf of Mexico, but differ widely where the system will make landfall.
The GFS American model (purple square) forecasts that the system will track over Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, then curve northwestward towards the Florida Keys.
NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.